Labor Department release December 4th, 2008. Unemployment claims.

Labor Department release December 4th, 2008.  Unemployment claims.

The U.S. Department of Labor released unemployment claims for the week ending November 29, 2008.  The figures were somewhat less than expected but still significantly large numbers.

The Seasonally Adjusted Figures for November 29, 2008:

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 509,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 530,000.  The 4-week moving average was 524,500, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 518,250.

The advance number for continued insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 29 was 4,087,000, an increase of 89,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,998,000.  The 4-week moving average was 4,001,750, an increase of 63,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,938,000

Non Seasonally Adjusted Figures:

Since we have a healthy skepticism of the statistical model used by the government to determine seasonal adjustments, we prefer to analyze non seasonal figures when they are available and comparable.  The Department of Labor report refers to the non seasonally adjusted figures as “actual initial claims”.  I always find that term amusing, actual numbers versus these other numbers we like to look at…..why ever look at seasonal adjustments when you are trying to discern sustained, measurable patterns and changes.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 529,941 in the week ending Nov. 29, a decrease of 78,974 from the previous week. There were 462,902 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007.

The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming total unemployment insurance benefits in state programs totaled 3,649,809, a decrease of 132,069 from the preceding week. A year earlier the number of total continuing claims was 2,293,829.

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